Market participants had fully expected Wednesday’s move by the central bank, but recent data had shown continued solid economic growth and perky inflation. This turned the focus today to the policy statement, updated economic projections and the upcoming press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell for clues about the Fed’s thinking on future policy actions.
The Fed’s quarterly economic projections — which include the “dot plot” indicating where the central bank expects the Fed funds rate to land over time — reveal that policymakers expect the Fed funds rate to decline to 3.9% by year-end 2025 or another 50 basis points in rate cuts next year. That’s higher than the 3.4% projected in September, signaling a less dovish monetary policy in 2025. Fed members’ projections for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and core PCE inflation for next year rose to 2.5% from September’s forecast of 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively.
Already lower in the session, the price of bitcoin (BTC) turned lower from $104,000 following the announcement, dipping to around $101,000 as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s spoke to the press, down nearly 5% over the past 24 hours. Smaller cryptos tumbled even more, with XRP, Cardano’s ADA, Litecoin’s LTC nearly 10% down. The S&P 500 index also fell to a session low on Wednesday.
During the press conference following the FOMC decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the projected slower path of further rate cuts is a reflection of hotter inflation readings in previous months and higher inflation expectations for next year.
“We are closer to the neutral rate, which is another reason about further moves,” Powell added.
Powell, replying to a reporter question about the idea of the government establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve under Donald Trump’s presidency, said that the Fed is “not allowed to own bitcoin” per the Federal Reserve Act and isn’t looking for a law change.
“I think the biggest headache for the Fed right now is the fact that financial conditions have still tightened despite the Fed cutting rates,” Andre Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk prior to today’s action. “Long bond yields and mortgage rates have increased since September and the dollar has appreciated which also implies a tightening in financial conditions.”
“A continued appreciation of the US dollar also poses a macro risk for bitcoin since dollar appreciation is associated with global money supply contraction as well which tends to be bad for bitcoin and other crypto assets,” Dragosch continued. “In fact, Fed net liquidity continues to decrease. Tightening liquidity and strong dollar is also the biggest risk for BTC in my view … On the other hand, on-chain factors for BTC continue to be very supportive, in particular the ongoing decline in exchange balances which supports the hypothesis that the BTC supply deficit continues to intensify.”
UPDATE (Dec. 18, 20:23 UTC): Updates price action after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.